Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts

Monday, March 30, 2009

An Optimist at Heart

Tomorrow, we will discuss the winter's worst offseason free agent deals, but first let's talk about that the wisest moves.

Best One-Year Contract: Orlando Hudson, $3.8m plus incentives, LA Dodgers - In October, Hudson figured he would be fielding multi-year offers at eight figures per (three years, $30m was floated). When the market fizzled, the Dodgers carpe diem'ed and signed Hudson to this bargain basement deal.

Honorable Mention: Joe Crede, $2.5m, Minnesota Twins - Crede provides Gold Glove-caliber defense and is only two seasons removed from a 30-homerun season.


Best Two-Year Contract: Adam Dunn, $20m, Washington Nationals - Aside from being a lock for 40 homeruns every year, Dunn provides legitimacy for a franchise sorely lacking it.

Honorable Mention: Brian Fuentes, $17.5m, LA Angels - I have repeatedly crticized the Angels' offseason moves, but this signing was a good one. If it works out as most expect. the Halos will have an equally-effective, cheaper K-Rod.


Best Three-Year Contract: Francisco Rodriguez, $37.5m, New York Mets - After two straight September collapses, the Mets needed bullpen depth and K-Rod provides it. He's probably a bit overpaid, but if he can help get the Mets over the hurdle and into the playoffs, he'll be worth every penny.

Friday, February 20, 2009

O-Dog, Oh No

It appears the Los Angeles Dodgers are on the verge of signing 2B Orlando Hudson to a bargain basement deal, 1 year / $3.4m plus incentives. I'm not sure which is more stunning: the fact that Hudson came so cheaply or the fact that the New York Mets couldn't offer a better deal.

As I wrote a few days back, the Mets are relying on an aging, borderline decrepit, Luis Castillo to man second base and possibly lead off.

Omar, what's the story?

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Heyman and I Don't See Eye-to-Eye

It has become pretty evident that Jon Heyman and I agree on very few issues. In a recent article, he graded each team's winter moves. I have a few bones to pick.

Heyman's Top 10 "Winners"

Phillies (1): As Heyman alludes to, the Phillies signed Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to long-term deals. However, barring a trade, these two had no way out of Philadelphia as the team controlled their arbitration years anyway. They weren't going anywhere. The Phils other "big move" - signing 36-year old Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30 million deal - now looks laughable. This team did not improve that much to warrant the #1 ranking. Ruben Amaro gets a B from me in his first winter as GM.

Mets (2): Sure, the Mets added K-Rod and JJ Putz to help mend a shredded bullpen, but they failed to add any difference-making starters. No, Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia do not qualify. I won't even get started on the ageless Livan Hernandez signing. They also did not address the hole at second base. Luis Castillo will not cut it. Omar Minaya gets a B- from me.

Yankees (3): Any of these lists that does not have the Yankees at the top should be discarded immediately. CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Teixeira in one winter? Unreal. Brian Cashman gets an A+ here.

A's (4): I've detailed Oakland's moves ad nauseam in past posts, but I love the Holliday deal. Billy Beane gets an A.

Diamondbacks (5): Arizona lost Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Brandon Lyon and will probably watch Juan Cruz depart via free agency. They must have signed someone or many someones to compensate, right? Heyman ranks the D'backs this high because, "Jon Garland gives them a solid No. 3 starter." Is this some sort of joke? How does that equation yield a positive result? Aside from the fact that Garland has a career WHIP around 1.4 and averages about 4.5 K's/9, the team failed to add anyone else of note. Josh Byrnes gets a D from me.

Rays (6): No arguments here as they added Pat Burrell at a reasonable price and did not lose anyone of note. Andrew Friedman gets a B-.

Giants (7): Stop me when you hear the name of an impact player: Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Edgar Renteria (I said impact not intact), Bobby Howry, Jeremy Affeldt, Randy Johnson. I heard crickets until RJ's name and he'll be 45 years old on Opening Day. Brian Sabean gets a C-, and that's only because he didn't trade Tim Lincecum.

Braves (8): They overspent for Derek Lowe but traded no Major League-ready prospects for Javier Vazquez. Frank Wren gets a B.

Red Sox (9): Again, no arguments as they signed Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis to long-term deals and bought a number of low-risk, high-reward free agents. Theo Epstein gets a B-.

White Sox (10): They lost Vazquez, Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera and added no one of note. Kenny Williams gets a C.


Banter's Top 10 "Winners"

1. Yankees
2. A's
3. Braves
4. Cubs: Added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg.
5. Indians: Added Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa and took a flier on Carl Pavano.
6. Orioles: Locked up Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts to long-term deals. Dished out no palm-to-the-forehead deals which means a lot in Baltimore.
7. Mariners: Improved the defense and lost Type A free agent Ibanez meaning they get a first round pick as compensation.
8. Phillies
9. Rockies: They can't afford Holliday so getting Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez is a decent return.
10. Mets

Sunday, February 15, 2009

World Series Odds - Breakdown

Your team can win the World Series if....


On Second Thought, There's No Chance

Arizona Diamondbacks 30/1; Baltimore Orioles 150/1; Chicago White Sox 25/1 ; Cincinnati Reds 50/1; Colorado Rockies 60/1; Houston Astros 40/1; Kansas City Royals 150/1; Milwaukee Brewers 35/1; Minnesota Twins 25/1; Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1; San Diego Padres 200/1; San Francisco Giants 40/1; Seattle Mariners 100/1; Toronto Blue Jays 60/1; Washington Nationals 150/1

If one of these teams comes close, I'd be shocked.


Just Not Worth It

Boston Red Sox 15/2; New York Yankees 5/2; Tampa Bay Rays 12/1

If these teams can survive a brutal regular season, they will still have to win three arduous playoff series.


No, For One Major Reason

Chicago Cubs 7/1: If they can overcome the curse, the North Siders will be ecstatic.

Philadelphia Phillies 11/1: If they can repeat, they would be the first since the 1999-2000 Yankees.


Decent Value

Detroit Tigers 20/1: If they get offensive contributions from players other than Miguel Cabrera and if Carlos Guillen, Justin Verlander, and Jeremy Bonderman are healthy, they have a shot.

Los Angeles Angels 11/1: If they have a cake-walk into the postseason, anything can happen.


Great Value

Atlanta Braves 35/1: If Jeff Francoeur can bounce back and Chipper Jones can stay healthy, the Braves can take the NL East. If they do that, Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez provide a nice 1-2 punch in a playoff series.

Florida Marlins 40/1: If the Marlins young pitching staff takes strikes to deliver upon high expectations, they can surprise some people.

St Louis Cardinals 30/1: If the Cubs falter, Albert Pujols can carry this team on his back.

Texas Rangers 60/1: If the Rangers can add two arms through their farm system or free agency, the offense can compete with anyone.


The Contenders

Oakland Athletics 55/1: If they can add an arm, their revamped offense will make them a serious threat.

Los Angeles Dodgers 17/1: If they sign Manny, they become the favorite in NL West.

New York Mets 7/1: If the starting pitching can hold up, there's no reason they cannot win the National League pennant.


The One

Cleveland Indians 25/1: If Fausto Carmona can bounce back and Carl Pavano gives them any positive contributions I love Cleveland's chances. At 25-1, they represent the best value on the board. And yes, I realize I am counting on that Carl Pavano.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

MLB - Odds to Win Division

A mere 12 hours after the Banter's Bobby Abreu bashing, oddsmakers unveiled the odds to win each Major League division. And wouldn't you know it, the Angels open up as the largest favorite in any division (-220). One man's way too early breakdown:

AL West: Angels -220; A's +300; Rangers +600; Mariners +1200

This division reminds me of the 2004 election. Did 51% of the country really want another four years of President Bush? Probably not. More likely, many of the voters simply opted not-Kerry. Betting on the Angels would be akin to voting not-Kerry. I'm not ready to go down that path again (yes, I voted for Bush in '04).

Sure, the Angels won the division by 20 games last year, but loyal readers know how dismayed I am with their off season efforts. Complacency does not breed division champions - unless your manager is Bobby Cox. I strongly believe the A's are just one player away from taking this division. Brad Pitt, err, Billy Beane make me look smart.

Pick: A's +300.


AL Central: Twins +175; Indians +200; White Sox +400; Tigers +400; Royals +1500

This division looks ripe for the picking, and the Indians seem most likely to take advantage.

The division favorite Twins have not added or lost any significant players this off season. Apparently, owner Carl Pohlad decided to cut costs and give the entire front office a four-month vacation.

The White Sox lost Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede and Ken Griffey, Jr. To compensate, they added... well, some spare parts (Wilson Betemit, Bartolo Colon).

The Tigers, coming off an uber-disappointing last place finish, made some minor changes such as replacing Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett (please, contain your excitement).

The Royals are the Royals.

That leaves us with the Indians who finished 2008 with a .500 record despite dealing CC Sabathia before the deadline. They revamped the bullpen with guys like sidewinder Joe Smith and fireballer Kerry Wood. The Indians also added Mark DeRosa who was disposed of by the Cubs for a reason unbeknown to most. The team underachieved last season and seems poised to take this division running away this season.

Pick: Indians +200.


AL East: Yankees -125; Red Sox +175; Rays +400; Blue Jays +1500; Orioles +4000

Talk all you want about the A-Rod distraction, lack of chemistry, and questionable health of some key contributors (Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada), but the Yankees are clearly the team to beat. Wang, who sports a 54-20 career record, will be the team's third starter. No team in baseball can compete with the Sabathia-Burnett-Wang troika.

Pick: As much as it pains me, Yankees -125.


NL West: Dodgers +140; D'backs +160; Giants +500; Rockies +600; Padres +2000

Once the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez, these odds will drop to -125. Don't wait. Jump on the Dodgers now. They have no competition.

If anyone wants to take the D'backs at +160, forget Vegas, and place your bets with the Banter. This team was decimated during the off season. They lost Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz (presumably), Banter-favorite Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon. They took fliers on Tom Gordon - yes, "Flash" - Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis, and Felipe Lopez which wouldn't have been bad if the year were 2003. This will be a long, long season in the desert.

If you are a Giants' fan, I have some good news: Tim Lincecum will be your Opening Day starter. After that, things get murky. The front office failed to address the glaring need: offense. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors last season. Signing Edgar Renteria won't do much to help.

The Rockies would intrigue me a whole lot more if not for the following three matters:

1. Aaron Cook is their #1 starter;
2. They traded their best player, Matt Holliday; and
3. Jeff Francis faces season-ending surgery.

Case closed.

As my mother often told me, "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." (Thinking.... thinking... Got it!) San Diego is a beautiful city. I was always a momma's boy.

Pick: Dodgers +140.


NL Central: Cubs -160; Brewers +500; Cardinals +600; Reds +600; Astros +1300; Pirates +3000

The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets leaving Dave Bush to be the team's second starter.

The Reds are MLB's version of the NFL's Detroit Lions. Never interesting, often terrible, and just plain blah. They are a difficult team to get excited about.

The 'stros overachieved last season and figure to regress towards the mean.

The Pirates have a beautiful stadium (thanks, Mom).

That leaves the Cubs and Cards as the only two teams that have a chance of winning this division. Chicago won the division last season by seven games and made only minor changes. They figure to win about 92-94 games. Can St. Louis win more than that? Doubtful, but at +600, I'll take my chances. They have the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols) and an ace in Adam Wainwright. I'm also bullish on the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base.

Pick: Cardinals +600.


NL East: Mets +130; Phillies +160; Braves +450; Marlins +600; Nationals +6000

Both East divisions figure to be very competitive throughout the season. The NL East has four teams capable of winning the division.

The defending Wold Series champion Phillies essentially swapped Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. The thing that concerns me with this team is the health of Cole Hamels. He threw the most pitches of any Major Leaguer last season. Can he repeat?

The Mets addressed their most glaring weakness, the bullpen, but failed to add an impact starter (although, they did retain Olly Perez). Will it be enough?

The Braves lost John Smoltz but added Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. If Chipper can stay healthy, a big "if," Atlanta can stay competitive.

The Marlins provide a nice value at +600 but lost a lot of talent from last year.

Since Washington remains irrelevant, here's an interesting Nationals-related fact: I was a better pro prospect than my high school teammate John Lannan, who happens to be the Nationals' number two starter.

Pick: Mets +130.


Coming later in the week: Full NL East Preview & World Series Odds breakdown.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Someone Please Sign Adam Dunn Already...

... and let that someone's name rhyme with Nomar Shminaya.



The Basic Fact


As of this post, Adam Dunn remains a free agent.


The Good

*Adam Dunn, the Texas-bred "Big Donkey" stands 6 feet 6 inches tall. He is only 29-years old.

*His power cannot be questioned as he has five consecutive 40 home run seasons.

*His career Adjusted OPS is 130. Among players under 30, he ranks sixth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Mark Teixeira and Jason Bay.

*He ranks third among active major leaguers under 30 in career on-base percentage behind Pujols and Wright.

*He has the fourth most home runs in the first eight years of a career. See below where he ranks with three all-time greats:

Rk Player HR-BB

1: Ralph Kiner 329-870

2: Albert Pujols 319-696

3: Eddie Matthews 299-726

4. Adam Dunn 278-797

*According to reports, he is considering taking a one-year offer so he can test the market again next season, making him a virtual risk-free investment.


The Awful

*Dunn's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Whether in left field or at first base, he's a statue and will cost his team approximately a dozen runs per season.

*He strikes out way too much.

*He has a laissez faire attitude. Last season, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi questioned Dunn's passion for the game.


The Guess

Dunn has had the misfortune of playing in Pujols' shadow since the two were rookies in 2001. He does not measure up to Fat Albert in any regard. However, he will come at a steep discount and sometime in the near future, someone will realize the good outweighs the awful.

From here, the Mets and Omar Minaya seem like the perfect match.