On the first day of 2009, I predicted where the top nine Major League free agents would wind up. Let's see how I did.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
Actual: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
Actual: Nationals
3. Derek Lowe, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
Actual: Braves
4. Oliver Perez, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
Actual: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
Actual: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
Actual: N/A - Still a free agent
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
Actual: Dodgers
8. Pat Burrell, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
Actual: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
Actual: Angels
Scorecard
Correct: 4
Incorrect: 4
To Be Deceided: 1
I'll take a .500 offseason.
Showing posts with label Bobby Abreu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bobby Abreu. Show all posts
Friday, April 3, 2009
Saturday, February 14, 2009
MLB - Odds to Win Division
A mere 12 hours after the Banter's Bobby Abreu bashing, oddsmakers unveiled the odds to win each Major League division. And wouldn't you know it, the Angels open up as the largest favorite in any division (-220). One man's way too early breakdown:
AL West: Angels -220; A's +300; Rangers +600; Mariners +1200
This division reminds me of the 2004 election. Did 51% of the country really want another four years of President Bush? Probably not. More likely, many of the voters simply opted not-Kerry. Betting on the Angels would be akin to voting not-Kerry. I'm not ready to go down that path again (yes, I voted for Bush in '04).
Sure, the Angels won the division by 20 games last year, but loyal readers know how dismayed I am with their off season efforts. Complacency does not breed division champions - unless your manager is Bobby Cox. I strongly believe the A's are just one player away from taking this division. Brad Pitt, err, Billy Beane make me look smart.
Pick: A's +300.
AL Central: Twins +175; Indians +200; White Sox +400; Tigers +400; Royals +1500
This division looks ripe for the picking, and the Indians seem most likely to take advantage.
The division favorite Twins have not added or lost any significant players this off season. Apparently, owner Carl Pohlad decided to cut costs and give the entire front office a four-month vacation.
The White Sox lost Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede and Ken Griffey, Jr. To compensate, they added... well, some spare parts (Wilson Betemit, Bartolo Colon).
The Tigers, coming off an uber-disappointing last place finish, made some minor changes such as replacing Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett (please, contain your excitement).
The Royals are the Royals.
That leaves us with the Indians who finished 2008 with a .500 record despite dealing CC Sabathia before the deadline. They revamped the bullpen with guys like sidewinder Joe Smith and fireballer Kerry Wood. The Indians also added Mark DeRosa who was disposed of by the Cubs for a reason unbeknown to most. The team underachieved last season and seems poised to take this division running away this season.
Pick: Indians +200.
AL East: Yankees -125; Red Sox +175; Rays +400; Blue Jays +1500; Orioles +4000
Talk all you want about the A-Rod distraction, lack of chemistry, and questionable health of some key contributors (Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada), but the Yankees are clearly the team to beat. Wang, who sports a 54-20 career record, will be the team's third starter. No team in baseball can compete with the Sabathia-Burnett-Wang troika.
Pick: As much as it pains me, Yankees -125.
NL West: Dodgers +140; D'backs +160; Giants +500; Rockies +600; Padres +2000
Once the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez, these odds will drop to -125. Don't wait. Jump on the Dodgers now. They have no competition.
If anyone wants to take the D'backs at +160, forget Vegas, and place your bets with the Banter. This team was decimated during the off season. They lost Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz (presumably), Banter-favorite Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon. They took fliers on Tom Gordon - yes, "Flash" - Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis, and Felipe Lopez which wouldn't have been bad if the year were 2003. This will be a long, long season in the desert.
If you are a Giants' fan, I have some good news: Tim Lincecum will be your Opening Day starter. After that, things get murky. The front office failed to address the glaring need: offense. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors last season. Signing Edgar Renteria won't do much to help.
The Rockies would intrigue me a whole lot more if not for the following three matters:
1. Aaron Cook is their #1 starter;
2. They traded their best player, Matt Holliday; and
3. Jeff Francis faces season-ending surgery.
Case closed.
As my mother often told me, "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." (Thinking.... thinking... Got it!) San Diego is a beautiful city. I was always a momma's boy.
Pick: Dodgers +140.
NL Central: Cubs -160; Brewers +500; Cardinals +600; Reds +600; Astros +1300; Pirates +3000
The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets leaving Dave Bush to be the team's second starter.
The Reds are MLB's version of the NFL's Detroit Lions. Never interesting, often terrible, and just plain blah. They are a difficult team to get excited about.
The 'stros overachieved last season and figure to regress towards the mean.
The Pirates have a beautiful stadium (thanks, Mom).
That leaves the Cubs and Cards as the only two teams that have a chance of winning this division. Chicago won the division last season by seven games and made only minor changes. They figure to win about 92-94 games. Can St. Louis win more than that? Doubtful, but at +600, I'll take my chances. They have the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols) and an ace in Adam Wainwright. I'm also bullish on the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base.
Pick: Cardinals +600.
NL East: Mets +130; Phillies +160; Braves +450; Marlins +600; Nationals +6000
Both East divisions figure to be very competitive throughout the season. The NL East has four teams capable of winning the division.
The defending Wold Series champion Phillies essentially swapped Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. The thing that concerns me with this team is the health of Cole Hamels. He threw the most pitches of any Major Leaguer last season. Can he repeat?
The Mets addressed their most glaring weakness, the bullpen, but failed to add an impact starter (although, they did retain Olly Perez). Will it be enough?
The Braves lost John Smoltz but added Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. If Chipper can stay healthy, a big "if," Atlanta can stay competitive.
The Marlins provide a nice value at +600 but lost a lot of talent from last year.
Since Washington remains irrelevant, here's an interesting Nationals-related fact: I was a better pro prospect than my high school teammate John Lannan, who happens to be the Nationals' number two starter.
Pick: Mets +130.
Coming later in the week: Full NL East Preview & World Series Odds breakdown.
AL West: Angels -220; A's +300; Rangers +600; Mariners +1200
This division reminds me of the 2004 election. Did 51% of the country really want another four years of President Bush? Probably not. More likely, many of the voters simply opted not-Kerry. Betting on the Angels would be akin to voting not-Kerry. I'm not ready to go down that path again (yes, I voted for Bush in '04).
Sure, the Angels won the division by 20 games last year, but loyal readers know how dismayed I am with their off season efforts. Complacency does not breed division champions - unless your manager is Bobby Cox. I strongly believe the A's are just one player away from taking this division. Brad Pitt, err, Billy Beane make me look smart.
Pick: A's +300.
AL Central: Twins +175; Indians +200; White Sox +400; Tigers +400; Royals +1500
This division looks ripe for the picking, and the Indians seem most likely to take advantage.
The division favorite Twins have not added or lost any significant players this off season. Apparently, owner Carl Pohlad decided to cut costs and give the entire front office a four-month vacation.
The White Sox lost Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede and Ken Griffey, Jr. To compensate, they added... well, some spare parts (Wilson Betemit, Bartolo Colon).
The Tigers, coming off an uber-disappointing last place finish, made some minor changes such as replacing Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett (please, contain your excitement).
The Royals are the Royals.
That leaves us with the Indians who finished 2008 with a .500 record despite dealing CC Sabathia before the deadline. They revamped the bullpen with guys like sidewinder Joe Smith and fireballer Kerry Wood. The Indians also added Mark DeRosa who was disposed of by the Cubs for a reason unbeknown to most. The team underachieved last season and seems poised to take this division running away this season.
Pick: Indians +200.
AL East: Yankees -125; Red Sox +175; Rays +400; Blue Jays +1500; Orioles +4000
Talk all you want about the A-Rod distraction, lack of chemistry, and questionable health of some key contributors (Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada), but the Yankees are clearly the team to beat. Wang, who sports a 54-20 career record, will be the team's third starter. No team in baseball can compete with the Sabathia-Burnett-Wang troika.
Pick: As much as it pains me, Yankees -125.
NL West: Dodgers +140; D'backs +160; Giants +500; Rockies +600; Padres +2000
Once the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez, these odds will drop to -125. Don't wait. Jump on the Dodgers now. They have no competition.
If anyone wants to take the D'backs at +160, forget Vegas, and place your bets with the Banter. This team was decimated during the off season. They lost Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz (presumably), Banter-favorite Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon. They took fliers on Tom Gordon - yes, "Flash" - Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis, and Felipe Lopez which wouldn't have been bad if the year were 2003. This will be a long, long season in the desert.
If you are a Giants' fan, I have some good news: Tim Lincecum will be your Opening Day starter. After that, things get murky. The front office failed to address the glaring need: offense. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors last season. Signing Edgar Renteria won't do much to help.
The Rockies would intrigue me a whole lot more if not for the following three matters:
1. Aaron Cook is their #1 starter;
2. They traded their best player, Matt Holliday; and
3. Jeff Francis faces season-ending surgery.
Case closed.
As my mother often told me, "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." (Thinking.... thinking... Got it!) San Diego is a beautiful city. I was always a momma's boy.
Pick: Dodgers +140.
NL Central: Cubs -160; Brewers +500; Cardinals +600; Reds +600; Astros +1300; Pirates +3000
The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets leaving Dave Bush to be the team's second starter.
The Reds are MLB's version of the NFL's Detroit Lions. Never interesting, often terrible, and just plain blah. They are a difficult team to get excited about.
The 'stros overachieved last season and figure to regress towards the mean.
The Pirates have a beautiful stadium (thanks, Mom).
That leaves the Cubs and Cards as the only two teams that have a chance of winning this division. Chicago won the division last season by seven games and made only minor changes. They figure to win about 92-94 games. Can St. Louis win more than that? Doubtful, but at +600, I'll take my chances. They have the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols) and an ace in Adam Wainwright. I'm also bullish on the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base.
Pick: Cardinals +600.
NL East: Mets +130; Phillies +160; Braves +450; Marlins +600; Nationals +6000
Both East divisions figure to be very competitive throughout the season. The NL East has four teams capable of winning the division.
The defending Wold Series champion Phillies essentially swapped Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. The thing that concerns me with this team is the health of Cole Hamels. He threw the most pitches of any Major Leaguer last season. Can he repeat?
The Mets addressed their most glaring weakness, the bullpen, but failed to add an impact starter (although, they did retain Olly Perez). Will it be enough?
The Braves lost John Smoltz but added Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. If Chipper can stay healthy, a big "if," Atlanta can stay competitive.
The Marlins provide a nice value at +600 but lost a lot of talent from last year.
Since Washington remains irrelevant, here's an interesting Nationals-related fact: I was a better pro prospect than my high school teammate John Lannan, who happens to be the Nationals' number two starter.
Pick: Mets +130.
Coming later in the week: Full NL East Preview & World Series Odds breakdown.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Bobby Abreu and Other Thoughts and Observations
The Los Angeles Angels have signed Bobby Abreu to a one-year deal putting an exclamation point on a terribly disappointing offseason. The brief summary:
Out: 1B Mark Teixeira, P Francisco Rodriguez, P Jon Garland, OF Garrett Anderson
In: OF Bobby Abreu, P Brian Fuentes
RBI: 107, 101, 100
SB: 30, 25, 22
CS: 6, 8, 11
BB: 124, 84, 73
UZR: -15.6, -4.2, -25.6
Headfirst Dives / Slides: 0, 0, 0 - No one has ever seen Abreu dive or slide headfirst. Clearly doesn't want to scratch that face of his.
As seen in his UZR numbers, Abreu does not even play average defense making him a great candidate to DH. Unfortunately, Vlad Guerrero falls into the exact same boat.
The team had bundles of money in a buyer's market and has very little to show for it. Angels' fans should be displeased that the team added to its strengths but failed to address their most glaring deficiency - power.
In full disclosure, there are two redeeming factors in play. Although Abreu will be 35 years old on Opening Day, the Angels are only locked in for a single season. Also, Abreu has a reasonable contract ($5m) so it seems like a reasonable risk.
****************
Other Thoughts and Observations
*Same classic goal celebrations, including the matador (1:05), row the canoe (1:30), and snort the line (1:35) among others.
*Co-Dirtbag of the Week: Roberto Alomar. Plax was named earlier in the week.
*Leave it to the NY Post to come up with a way to cheer us up in these tough economic times:
Out: 1B Mark Teixeira, P Francisco Rodriguez, P Jon Garland, OF Garrett Anderson
In: OF Bobby Abreu, P Brian Fuentes
Fuentes for K-Rod is a wash. If given 70 opportunities, Fuentes may have saved more games than K-Rod. However, the upgrade of Abreu for Gary Matthews / Juan Rivera does not nearly compensate for the downgrade of Kendry Morales for Teixeira (in the understatement of the day). It does not help matters that Rivera signed a three-year deal this offseason. The Angels cannot afford this kind of offensive downgrade as their offense finished 10th in the AL in runs scored last season. Abreu could not be a worse fit for a team in desperate need of a power threat. Check out Abreu's stats for the previous three years:
HR: 15 (2006), 16 (2007), 20 (2008)RBI: 107, 101, 100
SB: 30, 25, 22
CS: 6, 8, 11
BB: 124, 84, 73
UZR: -15.6, -4.2, -25.6
Headfirst Dives / Slides: 0, 0, 0 - No one has ever seen Abreu dive or slide headfirst. Clearly doesn't want to scratch that face of his.
As seen in his UZR numbers, Abreu does not even play average defense making him a great candidate to DH. Unfortunately, Vlad Guerrero falls into the exact same boat.
The team had bundles of money in a buyer's market and has very little to show for it. Angels' fans should be displeased that the team added to its strengths but failed to address their most glaring deficiency - power.
In full disclosure, there are two redeeming factors in play. Although Abreu will be 35 years old on Opening Day, the Angels are only locked in for a single season. Also, Abreu has a reasonable contract ($5m) so it seems like a reasonable risk.
****************
Other Thoughts and Observations
*Same classic goal celebrations, including the matador (1:05), row the canoe (1:30), and snort the line (1:35) among others.
*A highly recommended, interesting read about Pitch Sequencing.
*Check out Dodgers' latest acquisition: Tanyon Sturtze. Think Joe Torre had anything to do with this move? I do. Now, he just needs Scott Proctor back and he'll be able to sleep easy at night.*Co-Dirtbag of the Week: Roberto Alomar. Plax was named earlier in the week.
*Leave it to the NY Post to come up with a way to cheer us up in these tough economic times:
Thursday, January 1, 2009
MLB's Remaining Free Agents
Perfect Landing Spots for the Nine Best Remaining Free Agents
Now that Brian Fuentes is off the market, I see a clear delineation between the top nine remaining free agents and everyone else.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF - Criticize Manny's attitude all you'd like but there's no questioning his production. Whichever team signs him will, hopefully for their sake, watch him chase the elusive 700 home run plateau.
There has been way too much posturing by both sides of the Dodgers-Boras negotiations that it's starting to remind me of a high school prom, but the Dodgers now have all the leverage.
Side note: Manny might not be an intelligent guy, but he is certainly smart enough not to sign with the Nationals no matter the dollars they throw his way.
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF - I find it hard to believe he's having so much trouble finding work as he's a perennial lock for 40 home runs (five straight years) and a .380+ OBP (four of the past five years). Sure, he strikes out a lot (understatement of the week) and his defense is pitiful, but it can be argued that his recent offensive production has been better than that of Mark Teixeira.
Dunn might come at a 60% discount to Teixeira, too.
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
3. Derek Lowe, SP - Lowe, ever the dependable innings-eater, has made at least 32 starts and won at least 12 games in each of the past seven seasons. Like Leona Lewis, it seems Lowe is getting better in time (Editor's note: bad joke allotment has been reached). In 2008, he posted his lowest WHIP, ERA, and walk totals since his Cy-worthy performance in 2002. Lowe has to be considered the safest of the remaining free agent pitchers.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
4. Oliver Perez, SP - His agent, the incomparable Scott Boras, claims Perez is one of the top five left-handed pitchers in baseball. Having watched every one of his outings over the last two plus years, I can tell you this is absurd. However, part of Boras' brainwashing / negotiation ploy has always been to set expectations sky-high. Even if he gets Perez a deal equivalent to the tenth best LHP, he will have succeeded. Also, as much as Perez struggled in New York, he did resurrect his career here.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF - Bradley's '08 season was a sabrematrician's dream as he led the AL in Adjusted OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, Batting Wins, and Offensive Win %. Like Manny, however, Bradley can be considered a "head case." Unlike Manny, Bradley has been plagued by injury throughout his career. He's a switch hitter who would look great in a Cub uniform next year (strictly platonic).
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP - As discussed in a previous post, Sheets cannot be depended upon to anchor a staff. His upside, as witnessed by his NL-leading three complete game shutouts, is as high as anyone in the league when healthy. Unfortunately, he's only made 30 starts in one of the previous four seasons. He slots in perfectly as a number two starter but will probably earn an ace's paycheck.
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B - Being a good "locker room guy" can only get a player so far (see: Millar, Kevin). However, despite posting somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers, O-Dog seems to be in rather high demand. Further, Hudson's defense has been declining steadily. By some metrics, namely Range Factor, Hudson ranked as the 18th best second baseman last season.
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
8. Pat Burrell, OF - 145 games, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, 90, walks, .390 OBP, and .500 Slg. Book it... unless he plays all of his home games at Shea, err, Citi Field in which case double the home run and RBI totals.
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF - It has been rumored that no human being has ever seen Bobby Abreu dive head-first. This includes his time on the basepaths and in the outfield. In spite of this and his declining power (steroids?) and speed, Abreu has knocked in 100+ runs in each of the past six seasons and has played in at least 151 games in every season since he became a regular (11 straight years).
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
This blog was created to form a medium of exchange where sports fans can share ideas, beliefs, and opinions. The creator has written for a number of websites and has appeared on ESPN Radio as an NFL Draft, MLB Trade Deadline and Fantasy Sports Analyst. He can be reached at mjs3131@hotmail.com
Now that Brian Fuentes is off the market, I see a clear delineation between the top nine remaining free agents and everyone else.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF - Criticize Manny's attitude all you'd like but there's no questioning his production. Whichever team signs him will, hopefully for their sake, watch him chase the elusive 700 home run plateau.
There has been way too much posturing by both sides of the Dodgers-Boras negotiations that it's starting to remind me of a high school prom, but the Dodgers now have all the leverage.
Side note: Manny might not be an intelligent guy, but he is certainly smart enough not to sign with the Nationals no matter the dollars they throw his way.
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF - I find it hard to believe he's having so much trouble finding work as he's a perennial lock for 40 home runs (five straight years) and a .380+ OBP (four of the past five years). Sure, he strikes out a lot (understatement of the week) and his defense is pitiful, but it can be argued that his recent offensive production has been better than that of Mark Teixeira.
Dunn might come at a 60% discount to Teixeira, too.
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
3. Derek Lowe, SP - Lowe, ever the dependable innings-eater, has made at least 32 starts and won at least 12 games in each of the past seven seasons. Like Leona Lewis, it seems Lowe is getting better in time (Editor's note: bad joke allotment has been reached). In 2008, he posted his lowest WHIP, ERA, and walk totals since his Cy-worthy performance in 2002. Lowe has to be considered the safest of the remaining free agent pitchers.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
4. Oliver Perez, SP - His agent, the incomparable Scott Boras, claims Perez is one of the top five left-handed pitchers in baseball. Having watched every one of his outings over the last two plus years, I can tell you this is absurd. However, part of Boras' brainwashing / negotiation ploy has always been to set expectations sky-high. Even if he gets Perez a deal equivalent to the tenth best LHP, he will have succeeded. Also, as much as Perez struggled in New York, he did resurrect his career here.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF - Bradley's '08 season was a sabrematrician's dream as he led the AL in Adjusted OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, Batting Wins, and Offensive Win %. Like Manny, however, Bradley can be considered a "head case." Unlike Manny, Bradley has been plagued by injury throughout his career. He's a switch hitter who would look great in a Cub uniform next year (strictly platonic).
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP - As discussed in a previous post, Sheets cannot be depended upon to anchor a staff. His upside, as witnessed by his NL-leading three complete game shutouts, is as high as anyone in the league when healthy. Unfortunately, he's only made 30 starts in one of the previous four seasons. He slots in perfectly as a number two starter but will probably earn an ace's paycheck.
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B - Being a good "locker room guy" can only get a player so far (see: Millar, Kevin). However, despite posting somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers, O-Dog seems to be in rather high demand. Further, Hudson's defense has been declining steadily. By some metrics, namely Range Factor, Hudson ranked as the 18th best second baseman last season.
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
8. Pat Burrell, OF - 145 games, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, 90, walks, .390 OBP, and .500 Slg. Book it... unless he plays all of his home games at Shea, err, Citi Field in which case double the home run and RBI totals.
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF - It has been rumored that no human being has ever seen Bobby Abreu dive head-first. This includes his time on the basepaths and in the outfield. In spite of this and his declining power (steroids?) and speed, Abreu has knocked in 100+ runs in each of the past six seasons and has played in at least 151 games in every season since he became a regular (11 straight years).
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
This blog was created to form a medium of exchange where sports fans can share ideas, beliefs, and opinions. The creator has written for a number of websites and has appeared on ESPN Radio as an NFL Draft, MLB Trade Deadline and Fantasy Sports Analyst. He can be reached at mjs3131@hotmail.com
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