On the first day of 2009, I predicted where the top nine Major League free agents would wind up. Let's see how I did.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
Actual: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
Actual: Nationals
3. Derek Lowe, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
Actual: Braves
4. Oliver Perez, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
Actual: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
Actual: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
Actual: N/A - Still a free agent
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
Actual: Dodgers
8. Pat Burrell, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
Actual: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
Actual: Angels
Scorecard
Correct: 4
Incorrect: 4
To Be Deceided: 1
I'll take a .500 offseason.
Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts
Friday, April 3, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
An Optimist at Heart
Tomorrow, we will discuss the winter's worst offseason free agent deals, but first let's talk about that the wisest moves.
Best One-Year Contract: Orlando Hudson, $3.8m plus incentives, LA Dodgers - In October, Hudson figured he would be fielding multi-year offers at eight figures per (three years, $30m was floated). When the market fizzled, the Dodgers carpe diem'ed and signed Hudson to this bargain basement deal.
Honorable Mention: Joe Crede, $2.5m, Minnesota Twins - Crede provides Gold Glove-caliber defense and is only two seasons removed from a 30-homerun season.
Best Two-Year Contract: Adam Dunn, $20m, Washington Nationals - Aside from being a lock for 40 homeruns every year, Dunn provides legitimacy for a franchise sorely lacking it.
Honorable Mention: Brian Fuentes, $17.5m, LA Angels - I have repeatedly crticized the Angels' offseason moves, but this signing was a good one. If it works out as most expect. the Halos will have an equally-effective, cheaper K-Rod.
Best Three-Year Contract: Francisco Rodriguez, $37.5m, New York Mets - After two straight September collapses, the Mets needed bullpen depth and K-Rod provides it. He's probably a bit overpaid, but if he can help get the Mets over the hurdle and into the playoffs, he'll be worth every penny.
Best One-Year Contract: Orlando Hudson, $3.8m plus incentives, LA Dodgers - In October, Hudson figured he would be fielding multi-year offers at eight figures per (three years, $30m was floated). When the market fizzled, the Dodgers carpe diem'ed and signed Hudson to this bargain basement deal.
Honorable Mention: Joe Crede, $2.5m, Minnesota Twins - Crede provides Gold Glove-caliber defense and is only two seasons removed from a 30-homerun season.
Best Two-Year Contract: Adam Dunn, $20m, Washington Nationals - Aside from being a lock for 40 homeruns every year, Dunn provides legitimacy for a franchise sorely lacking it.
Honorable Mention: Brian Fuentes, $17.5m, LA Angels - I have repeatedly crticized the Angels' offseason moves, but this signing was a good one. If it works out as most expect. the Halos will have an equally-effective, cheaper K-Rod.
Best Three-Year Contract: Francisco Rodriguez, $37.5m, New York Mets - After two straight September collapses, the Mets needed bullpen depth and K-Rod provides it. He's probably a bit overpaid, but if he can help get the Mets over the hurdle and into the playoffs, he'll be worth every penny.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Someone Please Sign Adam Dunn Already...
... and let that someone's name rhyme with Nomar Shminaya.
The Basic Fact
As of this post, Adam Dunn remains a free agent.
The Good
*Adam Dunn, the Texas-bred "Big Donkey" stands 6 feet 6 inches tall. He is only 29-years old.
*His power cannot be questioned as he has five consecutive 40 home run seasons.
*His career Adjusted OPS is 130. Among players under 30, he ranks sixth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Mark Teixeira and Jason Bay.
*He ranks third among active major leaguers under 30 in career on-base percentage behind Pujols and Wright.
*He has the fourth most home runs in the first eight years of a career. See below where he ranks with three all-time greats:
Rk Player HR-BB
1: Ralph Kiner 329-870
2: Albert Pujols 319-696
3: Eddie Matthews 299-726
4. Adam Dunn 278-797
*According to reports, he is considering taking a one-year offer so he can test the market again next season, making him a virtual risk-free investment.
The Awful
*Dunn's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Whether in left field or at first base, he's a statue and will cost his team approximately a dozen runs per season.
*He strikes out way too much.
*He has a laissez faire attitude. Last season, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi questioned Dunn's passion for the game.
The Guess
Dunn has had the misfortune of playing in Pujols' shadow since the two were rookies in 2001. He does not measure up to Fat Albert in any regard. However, he will come at a steep discount and sometime in the near future, someone will realize the good outweighs the awful.
From here, the Mets and Omar Minaya seem like the perfect match.
The Basic Fact
As of this post, Adam Dunn remains a free agent.
The Good
*Adam Dunn, the Texas-bred "Big Donkey" stands 6 feet 6 inches tall. He is only 29-years old.
*His power cannot be questioned as he has five consecutive 40 home run seasons.
*His career Adjusted OPS is 130. Among players under 30, he ranks sixth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Mark Teixeira and Jason Bay.
*He ranks third among active major leaguers under 30 in career on-base percentage behind Pujols and Wright.
*He has the fourth most home runs in the first eight years of a career. See below where he ranks with three all-time greats:
Rk Player HR-BB
1: Ralph Kiner 329-870
2: Albert Pujols 319-696
3: Eddie Matthews 299-726
4. Adam Dunn 278-797
*According to reports, he is considering taking a one-year offer so he can test the market again next season, making him a virtual risk-free investment.
The Awful
*Dunn's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Whether in left field or at first base, he's a statue and will cost his team approximately a dozen runs per season.
*He strikes out way too much.
*He has a laissez faire attitude. Last season, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi questioned Dunn's passion for the game.
The Guess
Dunn has had the misfortune of playing in Pujols' shadow since the two were rookies in 2001. He does not measure up to Fat Albert in any regard. However, he will come at a steep discount and sometime in the near future, someone will realize the good outweighs the awful.
From here, the Mets and Omar Minaya seem like the perfect match.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
MLB's Remaining Free Agents
Perfect Landing Spots for the Nine Best Remaining Free Agents
Now that Brian Fuentes is off the market, I see a clear delineation between the top nine remaining free agents and everyone else.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF - Criticize Manny's attitude all you'd like but there's no questioning his production. Whichever team signs him will, hopefully for their sake, watch him chase the elusive 700 home run plateau.
There has been way too much posturing by both sides of the Dodgers-Boras negotiations that it's starting to remind me of a high school prom, but the Dodgers now have all the leverage.
Side note: Manny might not be an intelligent guy, but he is certainly smart enough not to sign with the Nationals no matter the dollars they throw his way.
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF - I find it hard to believe he's having so much trouble finding work as he's a perennial lock for 40 home runs (five straight years) and a .380+ OBP (four of the past five years). Sure, he strikes out a lot (understatement of the week) and his defense is pitiful, but it can be argued that his recent offensive production has been better than that of Mark Teixeira.
Dunn might come at a 60% discount to Teixeira, too.
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
3. Derek Lowe, SP - Lowe, ever the dependable innings-eater, has made at least 32 starts and won at least 12 games in each of the past seven seasons. Like Leona Lewis, it seems Lowe is getting better in time (Editor's note: bad joke allotment has been reached). In 2008, he posted his lowest WHIP, ERA, and walk totals since his Cy-worthy performance in 2002. Lowe has to be considered the safest of the remaining free agent pitchers.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
4. Oliver Perez, SP - His agent, the incomparable Scott Boras, claims Perez is one of the top five left-handed pitchers in baseball. Having watched every one of his outings over the last two plus years, I can tell you this is absurd. However, part of Boras' brainwashing / negotiation ploy has always been to set expectations sky-high. Even if he gets Perez a deal equivalent to the tenth best LHP, he will have succeeded. Also, as much as Perez struggled in New York, he did resurrect his career here.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF - Bradley's '08 season was a sabrematrician's dream as he led the AL in Adjusted OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, Batting Wins, and Offensive Win %. Like Manny, however, Bradley can be considered a "head case." Unlike Manny, Bradley has been plagued by injury throughout his career. He's a switch hitter who would look great in a Cub uniform next year (strictly platonic).
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP - As discussed in a previous post, Sheets cannot be depended upon to anchor a staff. His upside, as witnessed by his NL-leading three complete game shutouts, is as high as anyone in the league when healthy. Unfortunately, he's only made 30 starts in one of the previous four seasons. He slots in perfectly as a number two starter but will probably earn an ace's paycheck.
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B - Being a good "locker room guy" can only get a player so far (see: Millar, Kevin). However, despite posting somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers, O-Dog seems to be in rather high demand. Further, Hudson's defense has been declining steadily. By some metrics, namely Range Factor, Hudson ranked as the 18th best second baseman last season.
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
8. Pat Burrell, OF - 145 games, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, 90, walks, .390 OBP, and .500 Slg. Book it... unless he plays all of his home games at Shea, err, Citi Field in which case double the home run and RBI totals.
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF - It has been rumored that no human being has ever seen Bobby Abreu dive head-first. This includes his time on the basepaths and in the outfield. In spite of this and his declining power (steroids?) and speed, Abreu has knocked in 100+ runs in each of the past six seasons and has played in at least 151 games in every season since he became a regular (11 straight years).
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
This blog was created to form a medium of exchange where sports fans can share ideas, beliefs, and opinions. The creator has written for a number of websites and has appeared on ESPN Radio as an NFL Draft, MLB Trade Deadline and Fantasy Sports Analyst. He can be reached at mjs3131@hotmail.com
Now that Brian Fuentes is off the market, I see a clear delineation between the top nine remaining free agents and everyone else.
1. Manny Ramirez, OF - Criticize Manny's attitude all you'd like but there's no questioning his production. Whichever team signs him will, hopefully for their sake, watch him chase the elusive 700 home run plateau.
There has been way too much posturing by both sides of the Dodgers-Boras negotiations that it's starting to remind me of a high school prom, but the Dodgers now have all the leverage.
Side note: Manny might not be an intelligent guy, but he is certainly smart enough not to sign with the Nationals no matter the dollars they throw his way.
Perfect Landing Spot: Angels
Will End Up: Dodgers
2. Adam Dunn, OF - I find it hard to believe he's having so much trouble finding work as he's a perennial lock for 40 home runs (five straight years) and a .380+ OBP (four of the past five years). Sure, he strikes out a lot (understatement of the week) and his defense is pitiful, but it can be argued that his recent offensive production has been better than that of Mark Teixeira.
Dunn might come at a 60% discount to Teixeira, too.
Perfect Landing Spot: Orioles
Will End Up: Angels
3. Derek Lowe, SP - Lowe, ever the dependable innings-eater, has made at least 32 starts and won at least 12 games in each of the past seven seasons. Like Leona Lewis, it seems Lowe is getting better in time (Editor's note: bad joke allotment has been reached). In 2008, he posted his lowest WHIP, ERA, and walk totals since his Cy-worthy performance in 2002. Lowe has to be considered the safest of the remaining free agent pitchers.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
4. Oliver Perez, SP - His agent, the incomparable Scott Boras, claims Perez is one of the top five left-handed pitchers in baseball. Having watched every one of his outings over the last two plus years, I can tell you this is absurd. However, part of Boras' brainwashing / negotiation ploy has always been to set expectations sky-high. Even if he gets Perez a deal equivalent to the tenth best LHP, he will have succeeded. Also, as much as Perez struggled in New York, he did resurrect his career here.
Perfect Landing Spot: Mets
Will End Up: Mets
5. Milton Bradley, OF - Bradley's '08 season was a sabrematrician's dream as he led the AL in Adjusted OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, Batting Wins, and Offensive Win %. Like Manny, however, Bradley can be considered a "head case." Unlike Manny, Bradley has been plagued by injury throughout his career. He's a switch hitter who would look great in a Cub uniform next year (strictly platonic).
Perfect Landing Spot: Cubs
Will End Up: Cubs
6. Ben Sheets, SP - As discussed in a previous post, Sheets cannot be depended upon to anchor a staff. His upside, as witnessed by his NL-leading three complete game shutouts, is as high as anyone in the league when healthy. Unfortunately, he's only made 30 starts in one of the previous four seasons. He slots in perfectly as a number two starter but will probably earn an ace's paycheck.
Perfect Landing Spot: Rangers
Will End Up: Rangers
7. Orlando Hudson, 2B - Being a good "locker room guy" can only get a player so far (see: Millar, Kevin). However, despite posting somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers, O-Dog seems to be in rather high demand. Further, Hudson's defense has been declining steadily. By some metrics, namely Range Factor, Hudson ranked as the 18th best second baseman last season.
Perfect Landing Spot: White Sox
Will End Up: Braves
8. Pat Burrell, OF - 145 games, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, 90, walks, .390 OBP, and .500 Slg. Book it... unless he plays all of his home games at Shea, err, Citi Field in which case double the home run and RBI totals.
Perfect Landing Spot: Indians
Will End Up: Rays
9. Bobby Abreu, OF - It has been rumored that no human being has ever seen Bobby Abreu dive head-first. This includes his time on the basepaths and in the outfield. In spite of this and his declining power (steroids?) and speed, Abreu has knocked in 100+ runs in each of the past six seasons and has played in at least 151 games in every season since he became a regular (11 straight years).
Perfect Landing Spot: A's
Will End Up: A's
This blog was created to form a medium of exchange where sports fans can share ideas, beliefs, and opinions. The creator has written for a number of websites and has appeared on ESPN Radio as an NFL Draft, MLB Trade Deadline and Fantasy Sports Analyst. He can be reached at mjs3131@hotmail.com
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