Thursday, January 28, 2010

Damon's Dilemma

All dressed up with nowhere to go...


As of 1/29/2010, 10% of eligible Americans are unemployed. Johnny - which to my surprise is actually his given name - Damon stands squarely among them. (I know, not many in that group have earned $97m over the last 14 years but bear with me during my attempt at dramatic introduction). It is clear that Damon wants to play, but does anyone want him to play for them?

It does not help that his agent, Scott Boras, has held out for a two-year deal, but in my professional opinion, I would jump at the next (first?) offer of $5m* or more per year for two reasons.

1) Damon is worth this much. Sure, he played in Coors East which inflated his power numbers, but, still, the man can hit. He tied a career high in home runs (24) and posted a career best OPS+ (126). He was also 12-12 in stolen base attempts proving that although he is not the speedster he was, he can still get the job done.

As a model of constistency, he has played in at least 141 games in every year since 1996 but has never been K'd more than 98 times in a season (2009).

2) Not many more teams, if any, have a need for his services.

In my mind, the only three teams that could possibly entertain the thought of Damon starting in the outfield would be Detroit, San Diego, and Washington.

The only two teams willing to offer the starting DH role would probably be Tampa Bay and Chicago. Toronto (Randy Ruiz), Oakland (Jack Cust), and Seattle (Griffey) all seem committed elsewhere.

Kansas City and Cleveland might be interested in him as well but would probably have to dump bad contracts first (Jose Guillen and Travis Hafner, respectively).

So where does he end up?

My top three choices:

1) Chicago White Sox - Right now, Andruw Jones would be the team's starting DH.

2) Detroit - He might actually be an upgrade defensively over Carlos Guillen in LF.

3) San Diego - I thought they were going cheap this offseason until they signed John Garland.


*This offseason Vlad signed for $5m, Matsui signed for $6.5m, Mike Cameron signed for $7.7m. To me these players are extremely similar. Boras can save face if he gets a deal at least equal to that of Vlad.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

NFL Mock Draft - 1st Round

Now that we know most of the first round draft order, here's my first attempt at how it will all shape up:

1. Rams: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - The best defensive player available in the draft since Steve Emtman. I fully expect this to turn out better than it did for the Colts in 1990 (not saying much) as Suh is a beast who does it all along the defensive line.

2. Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - Detroit finished 25th in rush defense, 29th in sacks registered, and dead last in pass defense (265 yds/game). Needless to say, defense will be a focus early and often. Joe Haden also makes sense here.

3. Bucs: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - A protege of Monte Kiffin, who coincidentally figures to put in a good word with the Tampa Bay brass, Berry is a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball.

4. Redskins: Russell Okung, OL, Oklahoma State - The offensive line was a disaster as evidence by the 46 sacks allowed and 27th ranked rushing offense this season.

5. Chiefs: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Despite addressing the defensive line in the first round of the last two drafts, the Chiefs finished 31st in the league in rushing defense. Third time has to be the charm, right?

6. Seahawks: Joe Haden, CB, Florida - A match made in rainy heaven. Seattle finished 30th in pass defense, and Haden is a remarkable athlete capable of shutting down an opponent's top receiver.

7. Browns: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State - The Browns were putrid throwing the ball this season (worst in the league with 140 yards/game through the air). Bryant provides them with a much needed weapon. As an added bonus, we would get to see T. Boone Pickens do backflips after two Cowboys get picked in the top 7.

8. Raiders: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - If he plays up to his potential, Davis will be a perennial Pro Bowler, but he has some off-the-field issues, something Oakland is used to. Rumor has it, much to the delight of Al Davis, he's also the fastest offensive tackle in this year's class (that was a joke).

9. Bills: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - Buffalo needs a franchise quarterback, and Bradford can be just that.

10. Jaguars*: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - Jacksonville registered the fewest sacks in the league this season and lacked defensive leadership. McClain consistently pressured the passer while at Alabama, and his intangibles cannot be questioned.

11. Broncos*#: Earl Thomas, S, Texas - Denver's defense is in desperate need of some youthful energy and skill.

12. Dolphins: Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State - Miami's linebacking corps was painfully slow. Navorro, another in a long line of Nittany Lion LBs, flies around the field and makes plays from sideline to sideline.

13. 49ers: Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame - Alex Smith is clearly not the answer, and San Francisco has had some success with quarterbacks from Notre Dame.

14. Seahawaks^: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - Spiller is a Reggie Bush-type (not necessarily a positive comparison anymore) gamebreaker that can do a little of everything.

15. Giants: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida - New York's defense crumbled like feta cheese against the NFL's elite teams. Surprisingly, the biggest problem was along the defensive front. Dunlap, off-field issues aside, has Top 5 talent.

16. 49ers&: Sergio Kindle, LB/DE, Texas - Everyone seems to love these hybrid LB / DEs, and Kindle was awesome during the BCS title game. His stock is sky-high.

17. Titans: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State - A slight reach here but Tennessee was 31st in passing defense this season.

18. Steelers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - Only the Packers surrendered more sacks than Pittsburgh.

19. Texans*: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - Like the Chiefs, Houston has unsuccessfully tried to address their defensive line recently in the draft. Still, they really struggled getting pressure on the quarterback.

20. Falcons*: Taylor Mays, S, USC - Atlanta finished 28th in pass defense. Mays has had trouble in coverage and misses too many tackles, but he's a physical freak.

21. Bengals: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Aside from Ochocinco, Cincy lacks dependable receivers.

22. Patriots: Jon Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech - My preseason Heisman pick failed to live up to expectations, but he's a nice upgrade over the Maroney-Morris-Faulk-Taylor quartet.

23. Packers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma - Objective #1 for Green Bay = Keep Rodgers upright.

24. Eagles: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee - Philly's D was shredded and Williams could be the run-stuffer they lacked.

25. Ravens: Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida - The versatile tight end will become a dependable pass catcher for Joe Flacco.

26. Cardinals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - Whether it's Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart under center, Gresham will provide the Cards' signal caller with a security blanket.

27. Cowboys: Brian Price, DE, UCLA - Dallas' pass rush deserted them when they were needed most.

28. Chargers: Everson Griffin, DE, USC - Defense has to be the focus for the Bolts.

29. Jets: Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois - Another target for Mark Sanchez.

30. Vikings: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida - Sure, he's not a polished passer but the guy is a punishing runner (who doesn't fumble). Although I admit the fit is not perfect, I highly doubt Tebow falls out of Round 1.

31. Colts: Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa - Keeping Peyton healthy has to be the key to any season in Indy.

32. Saints: Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama - New Orleans has plenty of offense and should focus their first four picks on the defensive side of the ball.

* Subject to coin flip
# Acquired from Bears
^ Acquired from Broncos
& Acquired from Panthers

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Really, Sports Guy?

*Over the years, Bill Simmons has written a bunch of things which I am sure he regrets. Happens to all writers, of course. But, I doubt he has ever wanted to take back two sentences quicker than these two from his last article. Describing Sammi Sweetheart from "Jersey Shore," he said:

At first glance, super attractive. Upon further review, more trouble then it's worth.

1- Sammi Sweetheart is not attractive at any glance. There's no debating this.
2- Being a seasoned writer, Simmons should know the difference between "then" and "than." (This is a pet peeve of mine.)

Friday, January 15, 2010

MLS Draft?!

I fancy myself a (mock) draft aficionado, and I had no idea the MLS Draft occurred this week? Very disappointing performance on my part. For that, I apologize.

I actually don't know very much about the MLS, but here is my 30,000 foot (meaningless) take:
-Apparently high schoolers are eligible for selection. No one makes a big deal of this (NBA, take note).

-Two 17-year olds were drafted.

-One 24-year old was drafted.

-Soccer is a top-heavy game. In total, the top five teams in the nation accounted for 69% of this year's first round picks (11 of 16).
-25% of this year's first round picks (4 of 16) played at Wake Forest.
-19% of this year's first round picks (3 of 16) played at UCLA.

-For what it's worth, Wake Forest ended UCLA's season in the national quarterfinals, 2-0.

-Harvard finished in the Top 10 and had two guys drafted. Who knew?

-The Southeastern, Mid-South, Southern, and America East conferences each had the same number of players selected (1).

-No player from the Big 12 Conference was selected.

-All other BCS conferences were represented.

-The Columbus Crew drafted the two guys (both in the first round) with the two coolest names: Bright Dike (that has to win name of the year in the MLS, no?) and Dilly Duka.

They followed those picks with Kwaku Nyamekye, another great name, three rounds later. Nice work out of Ohio.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

NFL Mock Draft - 1st Round (Updated 1-24)

Now that we know most of the first round draft order, here's my first attempt at how it will all shape up:

1. Rams: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - The best defensive player available in the draft since Steve Emtman. I fully expect this to turn out better than it did for the Colts in 1990 (not saying much) as Suh is a beast who does it all along the defensive line.

2. Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - Detroit finished 25th in rush defense, 29th in sacks registered, and dead last in pass defense (265 yds/game). Needless to say, defense will be a focus early and often. Joe Haden also makes sense here.

3. Bucs: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - A protege of Monte Kiffin, who coincidentally figures to put in a good word with the Tampa Bay brass, Berry is a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball.

4. Redskins: Russell Okung, OL, Oklahoma State - The offensive line was a disaster as evidence by the 46 sacks allowed and 27th ranked rushing offense this season.

5. Chiefs: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Despite addressing the defensive line in the first round of the last two drafts, the Chiefs finished 31st in the league in rushing defense. Third time has to be the charm, right?

6. Seahawks: Joe Haden, CB, Florida - A match made in rainy heaven. Seattle finished 30th in pass defense, and Haden is a remarkable athlete capable of shutting down an opponent's top receiver.

7. Browns: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State - The Browns were putrid throwing the ball this season (worst in the league with 140 yards/game through the air). Bryant provides them with a much needed weapon. As an added bonus, we would get to see T. Boone Pickens do backflips after two Cowboys get picked in the top 7.

8. Raiders: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - If he plays up to his potential, Davis will be a perennial Pro Bowler, but he has some off-the-field issues, something Oakland is used to. Rumor has it, much to the delight of Al Davis, he's also the fastest offensive tackle in this year's class (that was a joke).

9. Bills: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - Buffalo needs a franchise quarterback, and Bradford can be just that.

10. Jaguars*: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - Jacksonville registered the fewest sacks in the league this season and lacked defensive leadership. McClain consistently pressured the passer while at Alabama, and his intangibles cannot be questioned.

11. Broncos*#: Earl Thomas, S, Texas - Denver's defense is in desperate need of some youthful energy and skill.

12. Dolphins: Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State - Miami's linebacking corps was painfully slow. Navorro, another in a long line of Nittany Lion LBs, flies around the field and makes plays from sideline to sideline.

13. 49ers: Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame - Alex Smith is clearly not the answer, and San Francisco has had some success with quarterbacks from Notre Dame.

14. Seahawaks^: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - Spiller is a Reggie Bush-type (not necessarily a positive comparison anymore) gamebreaker that can do a little of everything.

15. Giants: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida - New York's defense crumbled like feta cheese against the NFL's elite teams. Surprisingly, the biggest problem was along the defensive front. Dunlap, off-field issues aside, has Top 5 talent.

16. Panthers*: Sergio Kindle, LB/DE, Texas - Everyone seems to love these hybrid LB / DEs, and Kindle was awesome during the BCS title game. His stock is sky-high.

17. Titans*: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State - A slight reach here but Tennessee was 31st in passing defense this season.

18. Steelers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - Only the Packers surrendered more sacks than Pittsburgh.

19. Texans*: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - Like the Chiefs, Houston has unsuccessfully tried to address their defensive line recently in the draft. Still, they really struggled getting pressure on the quarterback.

20. Falcons*: Taylor Mays, S, USC - Atlanta finished 28th in pass defense. Mays has had trouble in coverage and misses too many tackles, but he's a physical freak.

21. Bengals: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Aside from Ochocinco, Cincy lacks dependable receivers.

22. Patriots: Jon Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech - My preseason Heisman pick failed to live up to expectations, but he's a nice upgrade over the Maroney-Morris-Faulk-Taylor quartet.

23. Packers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma - Objective #1 for Green Bay = Keep Rodgers upright.

24. Eagles: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee - Philly's D was shredded and Williams could be the run-stuffer they lacked.

* Subject to coin flip
# Acquired from Bears
^ Acquired from Broncos

Monday, January 11, 2010

NFL Mock Draft - 1st Round

Now that we know most of the first round draft order, here's my first attempt at how it will all shape up:

1. Rams: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - The best defensive player available in the draft since Steve Emtman. I fully expect this to turn out better than it did for the Colts in 1990 (not saying much) as Suh is a beast who does it all along the defensive line.

2. Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - Detroit finished 25th in rush defense, 29th in sacks registered, and dead last in pass defense (265 yds/game). Needless to say, defense will be a focus early and often. Joe Haden also makes sense here.

3. Bucs: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - A protege of Monte Kiffin, who coincidentally figures to put in a good word with the Tampa Bay brass, Berry is a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball.

4. Redskins: Russell Okung, OL, Oklahoma State - The offensive line was a disaster as evidence by the 46 sacks allowed and 27th ranked rushing offense this season.

5. Chiefs: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Despite addressing the defensive line in the first round of the last two drafts, the Chiefs finished 31st in the league in rushing defense. Third time has to be the charm, right?

6. Seahawks: Joe Haden, CB, Florida - A match made in rainy heaven. Seattle finished 30th in pass defense, and Haden is a remarkable athlete capable of shutting down an opponent's top receiver.

7. Browns: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State - The Browns were putrid throwing the ball this season (worst in the league with 140 yards/game through the air). Bryant provides them with a much needed weapon. As an added bonus, we would get to see T. Boone Pickens do backflips after two Cowboys get picked in the top 7.

8. Raiders: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - If he plays up to his potential, Davis will be a perennial Pro Bowler, but he has some off-the-field issues, something Oakland is used to. Rumor has it, much to the delight of Al Davis, he's also the fastest offensive tackle in this year's class (that was a joke).

9. Bills: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - Buffalo needs a franchise quarterback, and Bradford can be just that.

10. Jaguars*: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - Jacksonville registered the fewest sacks in the league this season and lacked defensive leadership. McClain consistently pressured the passer while at Alabama, and his intangibles cannot be questioned.

11. Broncos*#: Earl Thomas, S, Texas - Denver's defense is in desperate need of some youthful energy and skill.

12. Dolphins: Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State - Miami's linebacking corps was painfully slow. Navorro, another in a long line of Nittany Lion LBs, flies around the field and makes plays from sideline to sideline.

13. 49ers: Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame - Alex Smith is clearly not the answer, and San Francisco has had some success with quarterbacks from Notre Dame.

14. Seahawaks^: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - Spiller is a Reggie Bush-type (not necessarily a positive comparison anymore) gamebreaker that can do a little of everything.

15. Giants: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida - New York's defense crumbled like feta cheese against the NFL's elite teams. Surprisingly, the biggest problem was along the defensive front. Dunlap, off-field issues aside, has Top 5 talent.

16. Panthers*: Sergio Kindle, LB/DE, Texas - Everyone seems to love these hybrid LB / DEs, and Kindle was awesome during the BCS title game. His stock is sky-high.

17. Titans*: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State - A slight reach here but Tennessee was 31st in passing defense this season.

18. Steelers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - Only the Packers surrendered more sacks than Pittsburgh.

19. Texans*: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - Like the Chiefs, Houston has unsuccessfully tried to address their defensive line recently in the draft. Still, they really struggled getting pressure on the quarterback.

20. Falcons*: Taylor Mays, S, USC - Atlanta finished 28th in pass defense. Mays has had trouble in coverage and misses too many tackles, but he's a physical freak.

* Subject to coin flip
# Acquired from Bears
^ Acquired from Broncos

Sunday, January 10, 2010

DiamondView Comments

Beyond the Boxscore, a favorite site of mine, has been running a series of "DiamondView" articles which graphically plot four pieces of information as compared to the league average (by position) in an easy-to-comprehend format: on base percentage, power, fielding, and baserunning.

Here are some things I learned and noticed:

*AL East

--The Yankees clearly focused on getting on base and hitting home runs.

--The Rays should have been better than they were last season. Interestingly, the Rays excelled where the Yanks struggled and vice verse.


*Yankees

--Jeter was awesome this year.

--Johnny Damon should be a DH.

--Melky Cabrera: epitome of a league-average outfielder.


*Red Sox

--Jacoby Ellsbury might be a fantasy owner's dream, but he was pretty terrible this season.

--Over the last six months, this team has addressed their most pressing needs (VMart behind the dish, Scutaro at short, Cameron in center and Beltre at third) and has become the team to beat. Plus, they added the league's best free agent arm in John Lackey. Wow.


*Tampa Bay:

--Jason Bartlett, a guy who always had a glove-first reputation, dominated offensively while struggling mightily on defense.

--Ben Zobrist: beast

--Dionner Navarro: not so much


*Blue Jays

--Aaron Hill had a good year, but his exploits were a bit overblown.

--How does Rod Barajas keep a job in the Majors?

--For those of you unconvinced the Blue Jays aren't regretting that Vernon Wells deal (there must be someone out there), let me know what you think after reading this.

--87 was the highest score in a category that any member of this team achieved. Thank goodness for Doc Halladay.


*Orioles

--Aubrey Huff might have seen his last regular duty.

--According to The Sporting News, three teams are interested in Melvin Mora's services. If true, the general managers of those three teams will probably be searching for work elsewhere before too long.

--Nick Markakis struggled but the O's may have something with Nolan Reimold.

--Aside from Cesar Izturis' defense, no one rated at 83 or better in any single category.


I love these graphs. Keep them coming BtB.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Playoff Picks

Jets +3
Eagles +4
Patriots -4
Packers -1

Sunday, January 3, 2010

AGonz to the Mets?

The Mets recently signed Jason Bay. To me, this makes three things very obvious:

1. Spending $16m a year on a hitter despite the glaring need for pitching means the Mets plan to win a lot of high-scoring ballgames this year.

2. The Mets could care less about developing the farm system. Bay costs them their second round pick in the upcoming Rule 4 Draft. (I guess the thinking is that aside from David Wright and Jose Reyes, their track record of developing prospects has been abysmal so why ever bother.)

3. Money is not short despite the Madoff scandal.

With that in mind, why not attempt to trade for Adrian Gonzalez?

I have to think an offer of Fernando Martinez, Jennry Mejia, Reese Havens and Josh Thole would be enough to get the job done.

Sure, from the Mets' point of view, the cupboard would be empty. However, as mentioned earlier, that doesn't seem to bother them. On the bright side, Gonzalez has proven he can hit with abundant power in a hitter unfriendly environment, Petco Park. Plus, he will only cost $10m over the next two years. Look at the Met lineup with AG in the mix:

SS Reyes
3B Wright
CF Beltran
1B AG
LF Bay
C Bengie Molina (signing inevitable)
RF Francouer
2B Castillo

The pitching would still be a mess, but this lineup is incredible.

From San Diego's perspective, they get 24 years of control over four players that have varying degrees of potential.

Martinez- Met fans are all too familiar with FMart. He has been on the radar for four years now. Still only 21, he has 30-homer potential and projects to be a .300+ hitter with speed. All Star potential.

Mejia- Dominated in the lower levels but struggled in Double A and in the Arizona Fall League. Still, his fastball can play at any level. Once he develops the secondary pitches, he can be a top of the rotation arm. All Star potential.

Havens- Played shortstop last season but probably projects as a second baseman going forward. A patient hitter should add pop. Slightly above average second baseman.

Thole- A Major League-ready catcher (something the Padres would like in any deal)that figures to hit for a high average despite a lack of power. Average Major League catcher.

San Diego won't be competing for the next two years anyway. This haul would be worthwhile for them.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

NCAA Bowl Game Notes

I love the college football bowl season. Even so, I would love realllllly love a playoff.

I digress, here are some thoughts while watching this week's games:

*I love Toby Gerhart, the college player. In fact, I think he should have won the Heisman Trophy. However, as a caucasian running back, he is fighting 40+ years of NFL history. I am not saying it's impossible for him to succeed at the next level, but when was the last time a white tailback did anything in the League?


*Two Gambling Rules to Always Follow:

1) Never bet against any of the Armed Forces. (Navy, Air Force, Army, the Coast Guard JV team, etc). Just don't do it.

2) Never bet a significant amount of money on a team coached by Les Miles.

You will thank me later.


*Tracy Wolfson > Sam Ryan > Erin Andrews. There's no debating this.

Friday, January 1, 2010

NFL Picks: Week 17

The Picks

Colts +9
Giants +9
Cowboys -3
Patriots +8
Bengals +10

*****************
Season Record: 43-37