Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Weekend Summary

Another huge weekend. I was actually riding an 11-gmae winning streak dating back to last week. That, of course, was ruined by the Bucs, proving once again why you should never bet against the Saints.

I also had an 8-team parlay over the weekend. Going into Sunday, I was 6-for-6. I had the Falcons +7 and the Titans +6 remaining. If both hit, I would win 2000 units. If one won and one lost (say that five times fast), I would win 100 units. If both lost, I would win nothing.

I wanted to lock in some winnings and not waste a great start so I decided to hedge. At this point, my EV was:

25% * 0 = 0
50% * 100 = 50
25% * 2000 = 500
total $550

If I put 475 on the Giants (Falcons' opponent) on Sunday, then my four outcomes were:

Giants-Titans: 475 + 100 = 575
Giants-Texans: 475 + 0 = 475
Falcons-Texans: -475 + 100 (with another chance to hedge) = -375
Falcons-Titans: -475 + 2000 = 1525

If the Giants lost, I would then hedge the Titans-Texans game. Only one problem... no one would take my Giants bet meaning I had to sweat this game out.

And sweat it out, I did.

The Falcons were down two touchdowns with less than 10 minutes to play. Miraculously, a Tony Gonzalez catch (and suing celebration that could be heard throughout Manhattan) sent the game into OT, guaranteeing the cover.

So, heading into last night's game, there were two outcomes:

Titans cover: +2000 units
Texans cover: +100 units

I'm a risk-taker by nature but not insane.

I put 880 units on the Texans (to win 800).

The Titans ended up winning outright so I hit 8-for-8 meaning the end result was a +1120 unit weekend.

Enough excitement to last a whole year... or at least until next weekend.

College Football: 6-0 (Season Record: 49-31-2; PoW: 6-5-1)

NFL: 4-2 (Season Record: 30-28)

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