NFL Props and Futures Picks

Win Totals

Chiefs - Under 6: Have the Chiefs improved at all from last year's disaster? They only won two games last season. This is my pick of the year.

Browns - Under 7: Again, where is the improvement going to come from? This team won four games last year and traded one of their best players (Kellen Winslow).

Broncos - Over 6.5: Denver plays Kansas City and Oakland twice each, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. That should be six wins right there.

Lions - Under 4.5: I feel like a broken record, but where are the five new wins coming from?

Packers - Over 8.5: The offense will be awesome. Hopefully the defense shows up.


Props

1000-Yard Rushers in the NFL - Over 16.5: I have faith in Peterson, Turner, Williams, Portis, Jones, Slaton, Forte, Johnson, Grant, LT, Jacobs, Jackson, Lynch, Gore, Ward, Smith, Westbrook, Brown, Rice, Parker, and Moreno.

Jason Witten Touchdowns - Over 6.5: Without TO in town, Witten becomes Option #1 in the red zone.

Matt Forte Rushing Yards - Over 1150: The presence of Jay Cutler only helps Forte, who rushed for 1238 yards last season.

Kevin Smith Rushing Yards - Over 1050: Smith was not the feature back last season. Now, he is.

Brett Favre Touchdowns - Under 21 coupled with Brett Favre Interceptions - Over 18.5: My hedge prop. I do not have confidence that Old Man Favre can stay healthy for an entire season. Betting on both of these scenarios independently could net me big money.

Percy Harvin Receiving Yards - Over 500: He will be a dangerous threat from Day 1.

Pierre Thomas Rushing Yards - Over 900: He's the feature back despite the presence of Reggie.

Marshawn Lynch Rushing Yards - Over 750: Lynch is out the first three games but this line seems incredibly low to me.

Jason Taylor Sacks - Under 7.5: A big reputation gets you nothing.

Fred Taylor Touchdowns - Over 2.5: This could happen in one game.

Vernon Gholston Sacks - Under 4.5: I hope I'm wrong, but I would take the under even if the line was 2.

Chad Ochocinco Receiving Yards - Under 1150: Without TJ Housh, Chad becomes the focus of the defensive gameplan. Plus, he's bound to be suspended for over-Twittering, isn't he?

Most Receiving Yards in the NFL - Vincent Jackson 20-1: He's the #1 receiver on a pass-happy team. Admittedly, it's a long-shot, but these odds are attractive.

Most Rushing Yards in the NFL - Kevin Smith 25-1: Again, not likely but the odds are attractive.

Odds to Win Super Bowl

Chicago 15-1: I'm not a proponent of betting on the Super Bowl champ this early because there are still solid odds when the playoffs begin. If I were forced to choose, the Bears would be my pick.


Note: Odds are from Bodog.com as of 9/6/09.