Sunday, July 5, 2009

Fun with Pythagorean Wins

Pythagorean (or Expected) Wins: (Runs Scored)^2 / ((Runs Scored)^2+(Runs Allowed)^2) * Games Played

**Based on Bill James' Pythagorean Wins, the Mariners (42 actual wins / 38 expected wins) and Marlins (43 / 38) have been extremely lucky. Despite being outscored, both teams are actually playing over .500-baseball. Expect this to change.

**By the same token, the Indians (33 / 37) have been incredibly unlucky. My preseason World Series pick hasn't been as bad as their record would indicate. Although, they have been pretty abysmal.

The Rays have also been unlucky (44 / 48). Loyal reader Matt Scally points out that the Rays have the second best run differential in the Majors, yet another indicator the Raysa re poised for a big second half.

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